critical-uncertainties

仓库创建 2026年7月28日最近提交 1 天前SkillHot 收录 1 天前

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用于降低单一预测陷阱，利于制定多情景准备。

这个 Skill 做什么

找出对决策影响最大的不确定变量并设计监测与应对信号。

帮你挑出那些既不确定又会大幅改变决策的关键变量，并为它们设计监测信号和应对方案。在做重要决策、情景规划或当单一预测不足以支撑判断时使用。特点是把注意力集中到少数“关键不确定性”上，防止假性自信并为未来变化提前设触发器。

▸ 展开 SKILL.md 英文原文

Use when a decision depends on a few uncertain variables whose direction could materially change the plan. Use when applying critical uncertainties, uncertainty mapping, scenario driver selection, strategic uncertainty review, or signpost planning.

Skill 开发管理关键不确定性情景规划监测指标通用

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帮我安装这个 skill：https://raw.githubusercontent.com/fzfclee/consulting-skills/main/skills/critical-uncertainties/SKILL.md

或 curl 直取 SKILL.md

curl -fsSL "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/fzfclee/consulting-skills/main/skills/critical-uncertainties/SKILL.md"

SKILL.MD 节选查看完整文件 ↗

# Critical Uncertainties

Use this skill to identify which unknowns matter most and how to monitor them.

## Method Notes

- A critical uncertainty is both highly uncertain and highly consequential.
- The method prevents false confidence when one forecast is not enough.
- It can feed scenario planning, validation plans, stakeholder strategy, and risk control.

## Required Inputs

Collect or infer these inputs before execution:

- decision question or strategic choice
- possible uncertainties
- decision time horizon
- consequences of different outcomes
- early indicators or data sources when available

If an input is missing, mark it as `missing`, state the assumption used, and add a validati

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