abductive-reasoning

在证据不全时生成并排序最有可能的解释与假说。

在证据不完整或存在多种可能解释时，用来生成并排序最有说服力的假说（abductive reasoning）。常用于故障排查、用户/市场异常分析或需要从模糊信号推断原因的场景。输出是按优先级排列的候选解释，方便后续验证；它给出最可能的“推断”，但不是证明。

# Abductive Reasoning

Use this skill to choose the most plausible explanation when evidence is incomplete.

## Method Notes

- Abductive reasoning asks: what explanation would best account for the facts we see?
- The output is a ranked explanation, not proof.
- It is useful when stakeholder behavior, market signals, failures, or events can be explained in several ways.
- A good abductive diagnosis names what each explanation explains, what it fails to explain, and what evidence would change the ranking.

## Required Inputs

Collect or infer these inputs before execution:

- surprising fact, event, behavior, or outcome
- known evidence
- candidate explanations
- missing evidence
- decision c