romainsimon/skills-for-decision-making0°

valuing-information

仓库创建 2026年7月26日最近提交 11 小时前SkillHot 收录 4 小时前

这个 Skill 做什么

帮你算清楚做调研、A/B 测试、问卷或请顾问值不值，当有人说“多收集点数据”时就能拿这套出来用。它把研究结果换算成对决策的预期收益，告诉你这次数据会不会改变选择——不会的话价值就是零。特别之处是把模糊的好奇心量化，避免花钱做装饰性分析。

▸ 展开 SKILL.md 英文原文

Prices research, tests, surveys, dashboards and experiments before running them, by computing how much the result would raise expected utility - which is zero whenever no outcome would change the decision. Use when someone proposes an A/B test, user survey, market study, competitor analysis, analytics build, consultant, pilot, or "let's gather more data", and when deciding how large a study needs to be.

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# Valuing information

The value of an observation is the increase in expected utility from making it:

```
VOI(O) = sum over outcomes P(o) * max_a EU(a | o)  -  max_a EU(a)
```

It is never negative. It is **exactly zero** whenever the best action is the same
whatever you learn. That zero is the entire point of this skill: most proposed
research is decoration, and this is the calculation that says so before the money
is spent rather than after.

## Workflow

```
- [ ] 1. Name the decision the information would serve
- [ ] 2. State the actions and what you would do today with no new data
- [ ] 3. State the hidden variable, its states, and the prior
- [ ] 4. Score every action-state pair
- [

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