romainsimon/skills-for-decision-making0°

stress-testing-plans

仓库创建 2026年7月26日最近提交 1 天前SkillHot 收录 18 小时前

这个 Skill 做什么

在下重大决策前把计划拿去“压力测试”，检验关键假设会不会把优先级翻盘，找出最可能的失败路径，并把权衡用帕累托边界呈现。上线、涨价、迁移、做 premortem 或目标冲突时特别有用。它不靠一个虚构分数决断，而是把不确定性和折衷显性化，帮你看到在哪些假设下计划会崩。

▸ 展开 SKILL.md 英文原文

Validates a plan before committing to it - checks whether the ranking survives the assumptions, finds the most likely way it fails, and makes the trade-offs explicit via a Pareto frontier instead of an invented single score. Use before a launch, price change, migration, infrastructure change or major commitment, when running a premortem, when two objectives conflict, or when a decision depends on an assumption nobody has tested.

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# Stress testing plans

A plan is optimized against a model of the world. The model is wrong. Validation asks
three questions, in this order:

1. Does the ranking survive plausible errors in the model?
2. What is the most likely way this fails, and does that trajectory worry us?
3. What are we actually trading, and have we said so?

The governing principle: **plan with a simple model, evaluate with a rich one.** A
simple planning model resists overfitting to assumptions you cannot verify. The
evaluation model can be as elaborate as you can justify, because nothing is being fitted
to it.

## Workflow

```
- [ ] 1. List the assumptions the plan depends on
- [ ] 2. Score each option under each

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