romainsimon/skills-for-decision-making0°

reading-rivals

仓库创建 2026年7月26日最近提交 1 天前SkillHot 收录 18 小时前

这个 Skill 做什么

把竞争对手当成会反应的战略玩家来建模，预测他们的最佳回应、可能的均衡，以及对手不是完美优化器时的差别。换价、对手推出新产品、要不要跟进或分析寡头市场时要用。关键在于把对手行为从“天气”变成战略考量，避免被短期动作误导决策。

▸ 展开 SKILL.md 英文原文

Models what a competitor will do next and what happens if you respond - best response, equilibrium, and the difference between a rival who optimises perfectly and one who does not. Use before a price change or price war, when a competitor launches something, when deciding whether to match a rival's move, when analysing a market with few players, or when someone asks "what will they do if we do this".

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# Reading rivals

The mistake is treating a competitor's behaviour as weather. It is not: they respond to
you. A move evaluated against their *current* behaviour is evaluated against a world
that will not exist once you make the move.

Three questions, in this order:

1. What are they actually optimising? (usually not what you assume)
2. What is their best response to our move?
3. Where does the exchange of responses end up, and is that end state acceptable?

Question 3 is the one people skip, and it is where price wars come from.

## Workflow

```
- [ ] 1. Infer what they optimise, from what they have done
- [ ] 2. Build the payoff table for the moves in play
- [ ] 3. Check for a dominant s

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