romainsimon/skills-for-decision-making0°

planning-horizons

仓库创建 2026年7月26日最近提交 1 天前SkillHot 收录 18 小时前

这个 Skill 做什么

帮你决定到底要把规划推多远、如何为未来收益贴现，以及哪些 backlog 项目能直接砍掉不必深究。做路线图、排优先级或争论短期 vs 长期时让讨论更有料。特点是用回溯式地平线和显性折现率把过度规划和隐性偏好都摊出来，省掉那些不会改变周一行动的工作。

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Decides how far ahead to plan, what to discount future payoffs by, and which backlog items can be dropped without analysis - using receding-horizon planning, an explicit discount factor, and branch-and-bound pruning against the incumbent. Use when building a roadmap, prioritising a backlog, arguing about short-term versus long-term, setting quarterly or annual plans, or when planning has become an end in itself.

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# Planning horizons

Two chronic errors in roadmapping, and both are cheap to fix:

1. **Planning deeper than the decision requires.** Past a certain depth, extra planning
   changes nothing about what you do on Monday. That work is spend, not rigour.
2. **Leaving the discount rate implicit.** Every argument about short-term versus
   long-term is an argument about a discount factor that nobody has written down. Write
   it down and the argument usually resolves in a minute.

The organising principle is receding horizon planning: **plan to depth d, execute the
first step, then replan.** You are not committing to the plan. You are using the plan to
choose the next action.

## Workflow

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