romainsimon/skills-for-decision-making0°

learning-from-outcomes

仓库创建 2026年7月26日最近提交 1 天前SkillHot 收录 18 小时前

这个 Skill 做什么

把过去的决策变成可校准的判断力，而不是事后编故事。复盘时把当时的预测记下来并打分，按时间分配功劳或责任，分清是决策失误还是运气不好。好处是让经验真正教会你判断，而不是让好结果看起来都是自己看透了。

▸ 展开 SKILL.md 英文原文

Turns past decisions into calibrated judgment - scoring old predictions against what happened, assigning credit for delayed results, and separating a bad decision from a good decision that lost. Use during a retrospective, postmortem, quarterly or monthly review, when reviewing decisions taken 30+ days ago, when attributing a result to a cause, or when someone claims to have called something.

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帮我安装这个 skill：https://raw.githubusercontent.com/romainsimon/skills-for-decision-making/master/learning-from-outcomes/SKILL.md

或 curl 直取 SKILL.md

curl -fsSL "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/romainsimon/skills-for-decision-making/master/learning-from-outcomes/SKILL.md"

SKILL.MD 节选查看完整文件 ↗

# Learning from outcomes

Experience does not automatically produce judgment. Without a written prediction and a
scoring step, a review produces a story in which the good outcomes were foreseen and the
bad ones were unforeseeable. That story feels like learning and teaches nothing.

Three things make a review compound:

1. **Score the predictions**, not the outcomes.
2. **Assign credit across time**, because results arrive long after the decisions that
   caused them.
3. **Replay old decisions deliberately**, because recent experience otherwise
   overwrites older lessons entirely.

## Workflow

```
- [ ] 1. Collect the predictions that came due
- [ ] 2. Score them
- [ ] 3. Separate decision

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