romainsimon/skills-for-decision-making0°

framing-decisions

仓库创建 2026年7月26日最近提交 1 天前SkillHot 收录 18 小时前

这个 Skill 做什么

把模糊的“我们该怎么做”讨论变成可算的决策流程：把选项、未确定变量、先验和同一条效用尺度都写清楚，再按最大期望效用选出方案并检验是否有框架偏差。遇到不确定性下需要抉择、讨论陷入循环争论或要写决策记录、战略备忘或路线图承诺时用。特点是把隐含分歧形式化，把口水仗变成可比的数字化判断，能让团队迅速聚焦在真正差异上。

▸ 展开 SKILL.md 英文原文

Turns a vague "what should we do about X" into a scored decision - explicit actions, an explicit unknown, an explicit prior, and one utility scale - then picks by maximum expected utility and checks the result for framing effects. Use when facing a choice between options under uncertainty, when a decision has stalled in circular debate, when someone asks "should we do A or B", or before writing any decision record, strategy memo, or roadmap commitment.

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# Framing decisions

Most stalled decisions are not hard. They are unframed: the options are fuzzy, the
disagreement is about an unnamed hidden variable, and the outcomes are being scored
on two different scales by two different people. Framing dissolves more arguments
than analysis does.

Run the whole workflow. Skip to the calculator and you will optimize a badly posed
problem, which is worse than arguing.

## Workflow

```
- [ ] 1. Name the actions (at least three, one of which is do nothing)
- [ ] 2. Name the hidden variable the disagreement is actually about
- [ ] 3. Put a number on the prior, sourced not guessed
- [ ] 4. Score every action-state pair on one scale
- [ ] 5. Run the calcu

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